RESUMO
Objective To assess the prognostic value of APRI score and FIB-4 index for patients with chronic liver failure.Methods Clinical data of 426 patients with chronic liver failure admitted in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from March 2005 to September 2014 were retrospectively analyzed.The MELD score,APRI score and FIB-4 index were calculated.Patients were divided into survival group and fatal group according to survival situation within 3 month after admission.Logistic regression was used to analyze the differences in all the indexes between the survival group and fatal group.Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the value of the above indexes in predicting the 3-month survival.Results Among 426 patients 244 died within three months after admission.Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression showed that MELD score and FIB-4 index were statistically significant between the survival and fatal groups (Z =-4.783 and-4.104,x2 =26.31 and 11.34,both P ＜ 0.01).The area under the ROC curve of MELD score,APRI score and FIB-4 index was 0.635,0.511 and 0.616 for predicting 3-month survival,respectively.Compared with the APRI score,MELD score and FIB4 index were statistically different (x2 =13.669 and 6.341,P ＜ 0.05 or P ＜ 0.01).When MELD score ＞ 28,FIB-4 index ＞ 11.27,the patient has a high fatality rate and poor prognosis within three months.Conclusion FIB-4 index can be used to evaluate the short-term prognosis of patients with chronic liver failure,and the higher score of FIB-4 index predicts the worse prognosis.